Will Trump’s Trade War Bring an Early End to the Bitcoin Bull Market?

Bitcoin’s recent dip below $92,000 amid Trump’s renewed trade war announcements has sparked concerns among investors about the sustainability of the current bull market. However, historical data and strong demand fundamentals suggest that Bitcoin still has room to run.
Trade wars often lead to heightened economic uncertainty, prompting investors to seek alternative stores of value. While Bitcoin’s price reacted negatively to the initial news, many analysts argue that the long-term trajectory remains bullish. According to market projections, Bitcoin’s peak for this cycle is expected to fall between $160,000 and $210,000, with the top anticipated around September–October 2025.
Key on-chain metrics support the bullish outlook. Long-term holder supply remains at historically high levels, indicating confidence among seasoned investors. Additionally, the Pi Cycle Top indicator—a widely followed metric for timing market peaks—has yet to flash a sell signal. Institutional accumulation also remains strong, reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin has not yet reached its final cycle high.
Despite short-term volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic trends, including continued fiat currency debasement and increasing regulatory clarity in the crypto space, suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains intact. While Trump’s trade policies may introduce turbulence, the broader structural factors driving Bitcoin adoption continue to support higher valuations in the coming months.